09 10 2015 7 02 2015 26 Mission Mobilität Die Verheißungen sind groß Schon in einigen Jahren fährt der Mensch autonom elektrisch und voll vernetzt Unfälle Staus und Verkehrsinfarkte gehören der Vergangenheit an Doch ist die grundlegende Umwälzung der Mobilität tatsächlich so nah Die neue Welt Technologien wie automatisiertes Fahren Car to X Kommu nikation und alternative Antriebe entwickeln sich rapide wäh rend haftungs und verkehrsrechtliche Schwierigkeiten sowie Probleme mit der fl ächendeckenden Verbreitung des Mobil funkstandards der fünften Generation schnell und abschlie ßend gelöst werden konnten Das Ergebnis ist ein Verkehr im Jahr 2025 in dem der Verbrennungsmotor nur noch eine Randerscheinung und das autonome mit anderen Verkehrsteil nehmern sowie der Infrastruktur kommunizierende Fahrzeug die Regel ist Die schnelle Entwicklung des pilotierten Fahrens führt gerade in den Städten zu neuen Fahrzeugkonzepten wie selbstständig fahrenden Taxis Der intermodale und maßgeb lich durch Sharing Konzepte geprägte Verkehr ist in den Groß städten zur Selbstverständlichkeit geworden Kurzum Das Ver ständnis und die Erscheinungsformen von Mobilität werden sich 2025 sichtbar verändert haben Szenario 1 The future is now Fo to A ud i 8 700 euros on a basic vehicle certainly an acceptable price range for some buyers As far as car to x communication goes it is realistic to expect a bigger share share of networked cars on the roads in 10 years The SimTD joint project s final report indicates that more than 50 percent of the car fleet in Germany is expected to be car to x capable by 2025 A world of greatly altered mobility becomes conceivable if a couple of things happen Transportation and liability hurdles must be quickly overcome and the 5G mobile wireless standard must be quickly and broadly established Scenario 1 Futurologist Lars Thomsen considers this vision to be realistic From a technological standpoint he expects virtually all new vehicles to have active assistance systems that at least make partially autonomous driving functions possible In addition he predicts that every new vehicle will have an internet con nection by 2020 and cars will join the internet of things In large cities there will also be entirely new vehicle concepts Even before 2025 we expect the introduction of fully auto matic city pods that is driverless units in various megacities around the globe which would be a much less expensive alter native to taxis the Hamburg based researcher said It won t be the only visible change in urban transportation Thomsen expects dedicated lanes for self driving vehicles on some streets and highways plus a declining share of vehicles in private ownership On demand services and car sharing will grow Although many experts are seeing a slowdown in the development of electric mobility Thomsen assumes a breakthrough Starting in 2017 we expect battery prices of less than 200 dollars per kWh which represents the tipping point for electric mobility in many applications since internal combustion technology will then be more expensive overall even at oil prices below 60 dollars a barrel the futurologist said A dormant period of about three additional years is ex pected both buyers and the industry will need time to adjust to the new circumstances So it can be assumed that internal combustion technology will only be a niche market by 2025 The rapid development of artificial intelligence should not be underestimated in the transportation of tomorrow Thomsen says it will mainly promote multimodal mobility by increas ingly taking over and optimizing the planning and selection of the best form of mobility for the person The futurologist sketches out a vision of transportation that is quite different from today s model But he does not understate the impor tance of legislation in making these developments a reality If legal and infrastructure related hurdles cannot be overcome in the short term the scenario could remain fiction And in that event much more moderate change will take place be tween now and 2025 Scenario 2 Utopia This is a view that many manufacturers basically share despite their futuristic concept vehicles and the trial runs of auton omous test vehicles that have drawn the public s attention Highly automated vehicles that can drive themselves could theoretically come into use after 2020 BMW believes As for completely driver less motoring Werner Huber head of driver assistance and perception at the Munich based premium car group clearly told automotiveIT that in its final iteration ful ly automated driving will remain a utopia for now He reject ed a scenario predicting these vehicles on the road by 2025 When it comes to propulsion engineers at BMW expect vari ous forms of powertrains meeting different requirements but conventional internal combustion engines will still make up a high share of the total On the other hand the trend to multi modality in large cities seems inevitable Much like Thomsen BMW expects car sharing services and public short distance transportation to become more and more important especial ly in mega cities Here the automobile s advance is increasing ly pushing against its limits said Tony Douglas head of strat egy and marketing at BMW Mobility Services As a result car ownership is no longer as appealing as it was Instead there is great demand for new solutions to ensure continued mobility In Stuttgart Daimler is also gearing up for fundamental changes in the implementation and experience of mobility both this decade and the next said Frank Ruff head of the Society and Technology department in the company s Direc torate for Corporate Research and Sustainability Ruff ex pects transformations to overlay and reinforce one another in a number of fields digital networking new vehicle concepts with electric powertrains automated driving and new mobil STORY Scenario 1 The optimists view By 2025 autonomous driving connected vehicles and alternative powertrains have quickly become standard Legal and regulatory issues have been sorted out and the required 5G mobile network is established everywhere Moreover by 2025 new car usage concepts are accepted across the increas ingly urbanized world And many of the scenarios developed 10 years before have become reality Scenario 2 The evolutionists view Technological breakthroughs take time and big legal and regulatory hurdles continue to be a problem for years to come Even in 10 years electric propulsion isn t attractive enough to make a serious dent in the market for traditional powertrains and progress toward fully autonomous vehicles is stalled at the halfway mark The absence of full 5G coverage is restraining the full potential of connected cars

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